Modeling Social Factor and Faulty Health System On The Dynamic of Childhood Diarrhoea in Low Income Population

Abstract

Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases offers insights into the core processes of disease propagation and transmission and assesses the potential severity of an epidemic. The main way that diarrhoea, an illness symptom caused by parasite, viral, or bacterial

pathogens, spreads is through fecal matter-contaminated water. Stress, whether experi- enced in childhood or adulthood, can significantly influence the development of bowel

disease. Surveillance studies conducted in wellness facilities may underestimate the true burden of disease, especially in settings with limited resources where many individuals do not seek medical care. In addition to limiting access to healthcare, low socioeconomic level can have an impact on housing conditions, food, and other elements that raise the

risk of contracting infectious diseases. Proper management of childhood stress and im- provements in healthcare systems significantly reduce diarrhoea incidence and associated

complications. Numerous models have been suggested in scholarly works to control child- hood diarrhoea disease, however there is scanty information about modeling social factor

and faulty health system regarding the trends and factors influencing diarrhea in children in Kenya. This study developed a mathematical model of social factor and faulty health system on the dynamic of childhood diarrhoea in Kenya. The model was based on a system of nonlinear first-order ordinary differential equations. It demonstrated using the Jacobian matrix that the local and global stability analysis of the disease dies out and reaches a

disease-free equilibrium when the basic reproduction number (R0) is less than 1. Specifi- cally, R0 was calculated to be 0.008278, indicating that with appropriate care for children

under five during a diarrhoea outbreak, the disease can be effectively controlled. Con- versely, if R0 is greater than 1, the disease may persist, leading to the establishment of

an endemic equilibrium. Using center manifold theorem to calculate bifurcation analysis

demonstrated a forward bifurcation showing the disease will die out at sometime. Simula- tion studies using the model parameters was calculated to show how social factor (stress)

and faulty health system propagate childhood diarrhoea as seen in figure 2 and 5. Under five children with stress and also subjected to faulty health system usually suffer severely as compared to those without stress and in normal health facilities. The findings of this study will offer important insights to relevant stakeholders, informed laboratory technicians and field experts by demonstrating the effect of stress and faulty health system that will aid in development of new intervention strategies which will help to reduce the spread of under five childhood diarrhea during an outbreak that will otherwise remain unknown leading to better designs for future development.